Economic calendar
This week's market-moving news, rated by how NQ actually reacts
Every major US release for the week ahead, in Eastern time. The impact rating isn't an opinion: it's how far Nasdaq-100 futures really moved in the 15 minutes after each release, in one-minute data back to 2014.
Week ofNov 9 – Nov 13
Tuesday, Nov 10
CPI (consumer prices) · Oct
NQ's first 15 min: typically 69 pts vs 16 on a normal day · what NQ does →
Thursday, Nov 12
Initial jobless claims
NQ's first 15 min: typically 17 pts vs 16 on a normal day
Friday, Nov 13
PPI (producer prices) · Oct
NQ's first 15 min: typically 43 pts vs 16 on a normal day
Week ofNov 16 – Nov 20
Tuesday, Nov 17
Retail sales · Oct
Monthly spending at stores and restaurants. Not rated yet.
Wednesday, Nov 18
FOMC minutes
NQ's first 15 min: typically 19 pts vs 14 on a normal day
Thursday, Nov 19
Initial jobless claims
NQ's first 15 min: typically 17 pts vs 16 on a normal day
Week ofNov 23 – Nov 27
Wednesday, Nov 25
GDP · Q3, 2nd estimate
Quarterly growth of the US economy. Not rated yet.
PCE inflation & personal income · Oct
The Fed's preferred inflation measure, with income and spending. Not rated yet.
Initial jobless claims
NQ's first 15 min: typically 17 pts vs 16 on a normal day
Thursday, Nov 26
Thanksgiving: US stock market closed. NQ futures trade a shortened session or none; check CME holiday hours.
Friday, Nov 27
Day after Thanksgiving: early close. Stocks stop at 1:00 PM ET, NQ futures at 1:15 PM ET.
Week ofNov 30 – Dec 4
Tuesday, Dec 1
JOLTS job openings · Oct
NQ's first 15 min: typically 24 pts vs 31 on a normal day
ISM manufacturing PMI
NQ's first 15 min: typically 38 pts vs 31 on a normal day
Thursday, Dec 3
Initial jobless claims
NQ's first 15 min: typically 17 pts vs 16 on a normal day
ISM services PMI
NQ's first 15 min: typically 32 pts vs 31 on a normal day
Friday, Dec 4
Jobs report (NFP) · Nov
NQ's first 15 min: typically 61 pts vs 16 on a normal day · what NQ does →
Put it in your own calendar
High- and medium-impact releases plus market holidays, in Google Calendar, Apple Calendar or Outlook. Subscribing keeps it up to date.
Google Calendar: Other calendars → + → From URL, and paste https://holdouttrading.com/calendar/holdout-economic-calendar.ics. Want every release, including the low-impact ones? Download the full feed.
Mark the levels news days run to
Free Session Levels Lite for NinjaTrader 8 draws the prior-day high, low and close, the overnight range, premarket and the initial balance on your chart.
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Let your strategy sit out the release
The Holdout NinjaTrader strategies read this calendar and take no new trades around high-impact releases. Included in Holdout Pro.
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How the impact rating works
For each release we took every past release day we could match to one-minute NQ data (March 2014 to September 2026) and measured how far price had moved 15 minutes after the release time. Then we compared that with the same 15 minutes on ordinary days with no major release. A release that moves NQ 2.5 times more than normal since 2021 is high, 1.5 to 2.5 times is medium, anything less is low. The point sizes are medians from the last two years, so they reflect today's prices.
| Release | Time (ET) | Impact | First 15 min vs normal | Typical move now | Days tested |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (consumer prices) | 8:30 AM | High | 5.3× since 2021 (3.0× since 2014) | 69 pts (normal 16) | 144 |
| FOMC rate decision | 2:00 PM | High | 3.9× since 2021 (3.7× since 2014) | 58 pts (normal 14) | 99 |
| Jobs report (NFP) | 8:30 AM | High | 3.1× since 2021 (3.8× since 2014) | 61 pts (normal 16) | 141 |
| PPI (producer prices) | 8:30 AM | Medium | 2.1× since 2021 (1.6× since 2014) | 43 pts (normal 16) | 141 |
| FOMC minutes | 2:00 PM | Medium | 1.8× since 2021 (1.6× since 2014) | 19 pts (normal 14) | 88 |
| ISM services PMI | 10:00 AM | Low | 1.4× since 2021 (1.3× since 2014) | 32 pts (normal 31) | 121 |
| Initial jobless claims | 8:30 AM | Low | 1.3× since 2021 (1.3× since 2014) | 17 pts (normal 16) | 532 |
| ISM manufacturing PMI | 10:00 AM | Low | 1.2× since 2021 (1.2× since 2014) | 38 pts (normal 31) | 131 |
| JOLTS job openings | 10:00 AM | Low | 1.0× since 2021 (1.0× since 2014) | 24 pts (normal 31) | 129 |
| Retail sales | 8:30 AM | Not rated | Not tested yet | — | — |
| GDP | 8:30 AM | Not rated | Not tested yet | — | — |
| PCE inflation & personal income | 8:30 AM | Not rated | Not tested yet | — | — |
What the data says about news days
- The big move usually happens before the open. On CPI and jobs-report days NQ's 8:30–8:45 move is 5.3× and 3.1× normal, but by 9:30 most of it is done: the 9:30–9:45 opening range is 1× normal on CPI days and 1.2× on jobs-report days. CPI · jobs report
- The first move doesn't tell you the day's direction. After CPI, the rest of the session kept going the way of the first 15 minutes 49% of the time (51% on ordinary days). After the jobs report, only 43%.
- FOMC days are quiet, then violent. The session before 2:00 PM is 0.7× a normal day's range. The first hour after the statement is 2.9× wider than normal, and price typically runs the other way 3.4× further than usual before picking a side. FOMC days
- Most of the calendar barely registers. JOLTS, the ISM surveys and weekly jobless claims move NQ about as much as any other morning. PPI used to be minor; since 2021 it moves NQ 2.1× normal.
Common questions
What time is CPI released?
8:30 AM Eastern, usually in the second week of the month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the dates a year ahead.
What time is the jobs report (NFP)?
8:30 AM Eastern, usually on the first Friday of the month, sometimes the second when the month starts late in the week.
What time is the Fed decision?
The FOMC statement comes out at 2:00 PM Eastern on the second day of the meeting, and the Chair's press conference starts at 2:30 PM. There are eight scheduled meetings a year; four of them (March, June, September, December) also publish economic projections, the "dot plot".
Should I trade the release?
That's your call, but know the numbers: the first minute after CPI has moved 17.2× more than a normal minute since 2021, spreads widen and stops slip. Many traders simply stay flat until the first 15 minutes are over. Prop firms often have news rules, so check yours.
Can my strategy stay out around these releases automatically?
The Holdout NinjaTrader strategies can: their Pause around news setting reads these dates and ratings, takes no new trades from a few minutes before to a few minutes after a high-impact release, and can close an open trade first. Building your own? The same list, past and upcoming, is at /calendar/high-impact.json.
Sources and updates
Release dates come from the published schedules of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve (last checked 2026-11-02). ISM dates follow ISM's standard schedule (first and third business day of the month), FOMC minutes come three weeks after each meeting, and jobless claims are every Thursday. Agencies do occasionally move a release (the 2025 government shutdown delayed several), so confirm the day before if it matters to you. GDP, PCE and JOLTS dates for 2027 will be added when the agencies publish them.
Historical statistics, not a forecast. Past market behavior doesn't guarantee future behavior. Educational content, not investment advice. Risk disclosure.