On CPI days NQ's first 15 minutes after the 8:30 AM release move about 3 times more than the same 15 minutes on an ordinary day, and 5 times more since 2021 (a typical 69 points lately vs 16). But most of that is over by the open: the 9:30 opening range and the full regular session are close to a normal day's size, and the direction of the first move told us nothing about the rest of the day.
What we measured
We matched 144 CPI release days since April 2014 to one-minute NQ futures data at real (not back-adjusted) prices and measured the same things on every day: the move in the first minute and first 15 minutes after 8:30 AM Eastern, the range of the first hour, the 9:30–9:45 opening range and the full 9:30–16:00 session. Each was compared with the same window on ordinary days, meaning days with no CPI, jobs report, Fed decision, PPI, JOLTS, ISM or jobless-claims release. Moves are measured in percent so 2014 and 2026 compare fairly; the point figures are medians since October 2024, at NQ prices around 24,000.
| Since Oct 2024 (23 CPI days) | CPI day | Ordinary day | Since 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|
| First minute after 8:30 | 78 pts | 5 pts | 6.8× |
| Net move after 15 minutes | 69 pts | 16 pts | 3.0× |
| Range of the first hour | 160 pts | 71 pts | 2.0× |
| Opening range, 9:30–9:45 | 108 pts | 107 pts | 1.0× |
| Regular session, 9:30–16:00 | 263 pts | 279 pts | 1.1× |
The move happens before the open
The 8:30 reaction is real and has grown: since 2021, the first 15 minutes on CPI days moved 5.3 times more than normal, and on 73% of CPI days that move was bigger than nine out of ten ordinary days. Volume in the first five minutes ran 8 times normal. Before 2021, when inflation was not the market's main worry, the same move was only 1.7 times normal.
By 9:30, though, the market has mostly absorbed it. The opening range on CPI days is the same size as on any other day, and the full regular session is only about 10% wider. Over the last two years CPI sessions were actually slightly narrower than ordinary ones. If you only trade the regular session, a CPI day doesn't look very different once it opens.
The first move doesn't call the day
A popular idea is that the first reaction to CPI sets the direction for the session. It didn't. After the first 15 minutes, the rest of the session (to 16:00) kept going the same way 49% of the time, against 51% on ordinary days. Using the first 30 minutes instead: 53%. A coin flip either way.
The biggest reactions were all in 2022, when inflation dominated: on October 13 and November 10, 2022, NQ moved more than 3.5% in fifteen minutes.
What this means in practice
- If you're in a position at 8:30, the first minute alone has moved about 17 times a normal minute since 2021. Stops can fill far from where they sit.
- Waiting for the regular session costs little: the opening range and day range are about normal size, and strategies built around the open (like the 15-minute opening range breakout) see ordinary conditions.
- Don't read the 8:30 move as the day's direction; in our data it carried no information about the rest of the session.
- Check your prop firm's news rules. Many restrict trading for a few minutes around CPI.
Historical statistics, not a trading signal. Past market behavior doesn't guarantee future behavior. Release dates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics archive; days without data (holidays such as Good Friday) are skipped.