On jobs-report days NQ's first minute after 8:30 AM moves about 11 times more than a normal minute, and the first 15 minutes about 3 to 4 times more (a typical 61 points lately vs 16). Unlike CPI, the jobs report also makes the regular session busier: the opening range runs about 20% wider. And the first move was slightly more likely to reverse than continue.
What we measured
We matched 141 Employment Situation release days since April 2014 to one-minute NQ futures data and compared each with ordinary days (no CPI, jobs report, Fed decision, PPI, JOLTS, ISM or jobless claims). Because the jobs report is almost always on a Friday, we also checked ordinary Fridays: their ranges are the same as any other ordinary day, so the differences below come from the report, not the weekday.
| Since Oct 2024 (21 report days) | Jobs-report day | Ordinary day | Since 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|
| First minute after 8:30 | 45 pts | 5 pts | 10.9× |
| Net move after 15 minutes | 61 pts | 16 pts | 3.8× |
| Range of the first hour | 172 pts | 71 pts | 2.5× |
| Opening range, 9:30–9:45 | 125 pts | 107 pts | 1.2× |
| Regular session, 9:30–16:00 | 328 pts | 279 pts | 1.1× |
A spike that whipsaws
The jobs report produces the sharpest first minute of any release we tested, about 11 times normal in every period since 2014. It also whipsaws: in the first 15 minutes price typically swings a long way in both directions. The smaller of its up and down swings was 2.8 times the size of an ordinary morning's (20 points vs 6 lately), so both sides get stopped out.
It carries into the session
Where CPI's effect is mostly gone by the open, the jobs report keeps the regular session active: the 9:30–9:45 opening range was 20% wider than normal and the day's range about 10–20% wider, in both the older and the newer data.
The first move tends to fade
After the first 15 minutes, the rest of the session continued in the same direction only 43% of the time, against 51% on ordinary days (40% since 2021). That leans toward the first move fading, but over 141 days it's a modest difference, not something to trade on its own.
What this means in practice
- Expect the first minute to be the most violent of the month. Stops near price before 8:30 are likely to slip.
- A wider opening range means wider stops for opening-range strategies; size down accordingly rather than tightening the stop.
- Be skeptical of chasing the first move: in our data it reversed slightly more often than it continued.
Historical statistics, not a trading signal. Past market behavior doesn't guarantee future behavior. Release dates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics archive; reports on market holidays (such as Good Friday) have no regular session and are skipped.