The initial balance (IB) is the high and low of the first hour of the regular session, 09:30 to 10:30 ET. On NQ over the last five years it held a median 60% of the day's full range, 79% of days set their high or low inside it, and 76% of days broke out of only one side. Only 3% of days never left it.
Where the term comes from
The initial balance comes from Market Profile, developed by J. Peter Steidlmayer at the Chicago Board of Trade. In a Market Profile chart the first two 30-minute periods of the session form the IB: the range where the day's early buyers and sellers first find agreement.
When price later trades beyond it, Market Profile calls that range extension: the market is looking for new participants at prices the first hour didn't accept. Which side extends, and how far, describes the kind of day it is.
The numbers on NQ
Every regular session from July 2021 to July 2026 (1,242 days), on one-minute bars:
- Median IB width: 141.5 points, a median 60% of the day's full range.
- Broke only the IB high: 41% of days. Only the low: 36%. Both: 21%. Neither: 3%.
- 79% of days set at least one of their extremes, the high or the low, inside the first hour.
- When the first break was upward, the low also broke later only 20% of the time; when it was downward, the high broke later 24% of the time.
- On days that broke one side only, price went a median 0.64× the IB's width beyond it.
- A narrow IB (under two-thirds of its 20-day median) broke out on 99.5% of days (183 days). A wide one (over 1.5×) stayed inside all day 8.6% of the time (185 days), against 3% overall.
How traders use it
- Direction after the break: the first side to break was usually the only side broken, so the break gives the rest of the day a likely lean.
- Targets: 0.5× and 1× the IB width beyond the break are common reference points. The median one-sided day reached about two-thirds of one IB.
- Day type: a narrow IB says a range expansion is likely, though not which way; a wide one says much of the day's range may already be in.
- Context with other levels: the prior day's high, low and value area, and the overnight high and low.
Descriptive statistics, not a tested trading strategy. They describe how NQ behaved on historical data and don't guarantee future results.